The bailout so far totals nearly $2 trillion in aid and guarantees to banks and housing market support.  Here is an accounting of all the main bailout programs, along with the possible potential loss of each.  If the housing market falls modestly, the taxpayer stands to lose at least $1.1 trillion, not just from the bailout funds, but from losses from government mortgage guarantees.

Most of the bailout money is in the form of loans and guarantees, so if all goes well, losses will be low.  The best case scenario is a loss of $150 billion in 'Giveaways' (see below). However, in addition to bailout loans, the government also guarantees GSE-related debt.  So if the housing market continues to fall, then assuming a 10% loss in housing price securities, the taxpayer stands to lose $1.1 trillion (sum of 'Loss' and 'Giveaway').  This number could be much higher if the housing market falls further, or if the government pours more money into the bailout.

Not included are a small number of smaller bailout programs (less than $5 billion).  As well, this list doesn't include stimulus spending, which is about $700 billion.  All dollar amounts below are in billions.

The amounts below are current as of January 7, 2010.

Capital Purchases

These are the large purchases of stock by the government with the resulting percentage ownership in the company. The government also provided capital to thousands of banks under TARP, but most of that money has been returned, with the exception of $25 billion from Citigroup. Although the companies are required to pay back the government eventually, there is no indication that any of these companies will be able to do so any time soon. Our optimistic estimate is that the taxpayer will be repaid 50%. All amounts in billions.

Mortgage Purchases and Guarantees

The government owns or guarantees about $7 trillion in home mortgage assets. Also, it continues to purchase more mortgages and mortgage obligations since Sept 2008 to provide more cash for the housing market. This activity keeps house prices high and mortgage rates low. How long the government will continue to support the market in this way remains to be seen. If housing prices fall significantly, the government (i.e. The taxpayer) will be on the hook for billions of dollars. The liability estimate here assumes housing prices will continue to fall, resulting in a 10% loss in the portfolios. Technically the government is responsible only for FHA insurance. However, in practice it backs the bonds and insured securities of all GSEs as well.

Guarantees on GSE mortgages

Federal purchase of private MBS

The government has also purchased $500 billion of private-label MBS (non-GSE MBS) from banks to support the housing market, avoid failures of certain big businesses, and increase credit liquidity.

Fed Repurchases

The Fed is purchasing assets from GSEs in order to provide liquidity for more loans, to continue to support housing prices and keep interest rates low. However, this does not increase the government's liability since these loans are guaranteed by GSEs and may be held until maturity.

Housing Market Giveaways

These programs are simple tax credits or cash giveaways. There is no expectation of repayment.

Future Expenditures

These are programs that are in the government toolkit, and could be implemented in a future crisis.

Bank Liquidity Guarantees

These programs guarantee bank operations so that investors will feel safer when purchasing bank bonds or making deposits. The loss assumes 10%, since not all banks will survive the current financial environment.